Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share means you believe the actual peak temperature will land in a specific bracket; a NO share means it will not. The settlement will draw from historical weather data published by Wunderground, making this market dependent on a single, verifiable source rather than forecaster opinion.

Dallas's July climate is consistently hot, with historical highs typically ranging from 93 to 98 degrees Fahrenheit. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will resolve as correct, or the market has not yet attracted sufficient participation to establish conviction. Comparing to recent July 13ths: in 2023, Dallas recorded a high of 97°F; in 2022, 95°F. These precedents indicate that outcomes in the mid-to-upper 90s are baseline expectations, though heat domes or anomalous weather patterns could push readings higher or lower than the 30-year average of 96°F for this date.

The National Weather Service and broader meteorological forecasts become actionable roughly 7–10 days before the settlement date. Traders should monitor late-June and early-July atmospheric patterns—particularly whether a high-pressure system establishes itself over Texas, which would elevate daytime maxima. Tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico could introduce moisture and cloud cover, moderating peak temperatures. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 July, so final forecasts issued on the morning of that date will carry the most weight for late-stage trading adjustments.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.