Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the Dallas Love Field Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a single real-world data point that determines how this prediction market resolves. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market is split across temperature ranges rather than a simple binary outcome, though the current crowd-implied probability for any specific YES outcome sits at 0% because the market is still aggregating views across multiple ranges.

Historical July highs in Dallas typically cluster between 88°F and 95°F, with 90–91°F being the most frequent peak in recent decades, which aligns with the current frontrunner in the market at 41% probability for that range, followed by 88–89°F at 34% [1]. This distribution suggests traders are anchoring on typical summer heat rather than extreme outliers, making the 0% figure for any single range a reflection of the market’s multi-outcome structure rather than a belief that no heat will occur.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast for Dallas and real-time temperature feeds from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as cloud cover, humidity, and wind patterns can shift the peak by several degrees within hours [1]. No specific announcements or schedules are pending, but the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026, meaning the final reading will be locked in once the day’s data is archived on the Wunderground history page for KDAL.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.