Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the Dallas Love Field Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a single real-world data point that determines the outcome of this weather prediction market. In this context, a YES share represents a bet that the highest temperature falls within a specific range, while a NO share bets it does not; if the range matches the recorded figure, YES shares redeem at $1, whereas NO shares lose value. The market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for the lowest range, “77°F or below”, reflecting strong collective confidence that Dallas will experience typical mid-summer heat rather than a cool anomaly.

Historical July temperatures in Dallas consistently exceed 80°F, with recent years often reaching 88–92°F during mid-month periods, making a sub-77°F reading highly improbable. For instance, July 2024 saw Dallas peak at 94°F, and July 2023 recorded 91°F, reinforcing why the market assigns near-zero probability to the cooler outcome. This pattern aligns with long-term climate data showing Dallas averages 90°F in mid-July, so traders interpret the 0% probability as a rational assessment of seasonal norms rather than an outlier prediction.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily high-temperature forecasts for Dallas-Fort Worth, which typically issue updated outlooks 24–48 hours before the settlement date. While no immediate weather alerts have been issued for July 16 as of early July 2026, any sudden shift toward cloud cover or rain could alter temperature trajectories, though such events remain rare in Dallas during this period. The resolution source, Wunderground’s historical daily record for KDAL, will publish the final figure shortly after midnight UTC on 17 July, locking in the market’s outcome based on that single verified measurement.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.