Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded on 28 June 2026 at Dallas Love Field Station, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the specific condition you selected, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome is currently 0%, suggesting traders collectively believe the temperature will not fall within the chosen range, though this reflects only the latest collective view and can shift as new information emerges.

Historical data frames how to interpret this low probability: June in Dallas typically sees daily highs between 96°F and 100°F, with the record high for late June reaching 100°F in 2022, while recent forecasts for June 2026 align with this warm pattern [5]. Comparable markets on Polymarket for earlier June dates in 2026 show frontrunners consistently in the 90–93°F range, with near-100% certainty assigned to those outcomes, indicating strong market confidence in warm conditions [2][3]. This historical consistency suggests the 0% probability may be premature if the chosen range excludes the likely 90–100°F band.

Traders should monitor official weather updates from the National Weather Service for Dallas Love Field and any revisions to the June 2026 forecast, as these directly influence the final resolution [7]. While no specific announcements are scheduled for 28 June, dependencies include the timely publication of Weather Underground’s historical data, which must be complete before the market resolves [1]. Recent temperature readings for 28 June 2026 show a high of 93.0°F, supporting the view that the market’s current 0% probability may not reflect the actual thermal conditions expected [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.