Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. A YES share in this prediction market means you believe the temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market (for example, above 35°C), while a NO share means you expect it to stay below that threshold. Currently, the crowd-implied probability of a YES outcome is 0%, suggesting traders are virtually certain the temperature will not reach the target range, despite July being Guangzhou’s hottest month.

Historical data frames this low probability with striking clarity: the highest temperature ever recorded in Guangzhou on 1 July was 39.1°C in 2004, but recent years show a different pattern. In July 2024, Guangzhou hit 39°C on 25 July, yet daily highs in July typically average around 33°C (91°F), rarely exceeding 36°C [1][4]. The 0% probability likely reflects that even in extreme heat years, temperatures on 1 July have not consistently breached the market’s upper threshold, and recent climate records indicate China’s hottest month was July 2024, not necessarily 1 July specifically [7].

Traders should monitor official weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground updates as the settlement window approaches, particularly any announcements about heatwaves or tropical systems affecting southern China. Recent news from Reuters confirms China recorded its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with temperatures averaging 23.21°C nationally, though regional spikes in Guangzhou remain variable [7]. Dependencies include humidity levels (often 82% in July) and rainfall, which can suppress peak temperatures, making the 0% YES probability a rational assessment of current seasonal patterns [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.