Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share pays out only if that peak lands in the specific temperature band the market has selected, while a NO share wins if the actual high falls anywhere else—whether hotter or cooler. This market currently shows a 0% chance for YES, implying the crowd believes the precise band is virtually impossible to hit, despite Guangzhou’s reliably hot July climate.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging around 33°C (91°F), rarely dropping below 30°C or exceeding 36°C [1][3]. A similar market on 3 July 2026 saw a YES price of 27.5% for a 34°C peak, yet the structural reality meant that any divergence—35°C, 36°C, or 32°C—triggered a NO payout [2]. The 0% YES price here likely reflects a mismatch between the selected band and the typical July range, not a lack of heat.

Traders should monitor daily forecast model runs from official Chinese weather services and updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source [2]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, pushing average temperatures higher across the country [6]. However, because the market resolves to a single temperature band among eleven possible outcomes, even a scorching 36°C day would not favour YES if the band is set lower. Watch for any official announcements on extreme heat warnings or station-specific data corrections before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.