Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the peak temperature recorded on 6 July 2026 at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within the specific range defined by the market, while a NO share pays out if it lands outside that range. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the targeted band.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability with clear context: July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, averaging 28.3°C, with daily highs often reaching 33–39°C[2][5]. The city’s record high is 39.1°C, and recent years show July peaks hitting 39°C on 25 July 2024[5][8]. A similar market on 3 July 2026 showed a 27.5% chance of exactly 34°C, indicating that while 34°C is plausible, the crowd may be pricing in a higher or lower extreme for 6 July[1].

Traders should monitor local weather forecasts and any official announcements from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau regarding heatwaves or extreme weather alerts, as these directly influence temperature outcomes. Recent reports confirm Guangzhou has experienced its longest summer since 1961, with 235 summer days recorded by mid-2026, suggesting sustained high temperatures are likely[4][6]. No sudden policy changes are expected, but cloud cover, rainfall, and wind patterns on 6 July will be the decisive catalysts for the final reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.