Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime temperature recorded on 9 July 2026 at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the highest temperature falls within the specific range you selected, while a NO share wins if it lands outside that range. Here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying traders believe the temperature will not hit the chosen threshold, despite July being Guangzhou’s hottest month.

Historical data frames this low probability as potentially counterintuitive. July in Guangzhou routinely sees daytime highs above 32–35°C, with frequent spikes exceeding 37°C, and average highs hovering near 33°C (91°F) [1][7]. Even in May 2026, the city recorded a peak of 36.3°C during a prolonged sunny spell, making it the hottest May in history [4]. Given that July is consistently hotter than May, a 0% YES probability suggests the market expects the temperature to stay below the range’s lower bound, which contradicts typical seasonal patterns where highs rarely dip below 35°C [1][2].

Traders should monitor the immediate weather forecast for Guangzhou’s 9 July, as sudden cloud cover or rainfall could suppress temperatures below the expected range. The official resolution relies on Wunderground’s daily record for the Baiyun station, so any data gaps or station-specific anomalies could alter the outcome [1]. While no specific government announcement is scheduled for that date, the 2026 July forecast already indicates daily highs ranging from 87°F to 100°F (30.5°C to 37.8°C), meaning the temperature could easily breach 35°C unless a significant rain event occurs [3]. The market’s 0% stance may reflect an overreaction to short-term cloud forecasts rather than the broader seasonal trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.