Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

Guangzhou on 27 June 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at the Baiyun International Airport, a real-world event that determines whether a YES share resolves to true or a NO share to true. A YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. In this case, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range, likely because historical data shows June is often dominated by thunderstorms and heavy rain rather than extreme heat[1][4].

Historically, June in Guangzhou is one of the wettest months, with average rainfall of 280 mm and frequent downpours that suppress peak temperatures[1]. While the city has recorded highs of 36.6°C in the past, recent years show a trend where heatwaves are more common in July, the hottest month, rather than June[1][7]. The subtropical high-pressure system influences the weather, but the presence of typhoons and heavy storms often keeps daily maximums closer to 31°C, making the 0% probability for a high-temperature range plausible based on comparable seasonal patterns[2][4].

Traders should monitor the daily weather schedule for typhoon warnings or sudden shifts in the subtropical high, as these are the primary catalysts that could alter the temperature outcome[1]. Recent reports indicate Guangzhou experienced continuous sunny days in May with highs up to 36.3°C, the hottest May in history, which may suggest a warming trend, yet June typically reverts to stormier conditions[6]. Watching Wunderground updates for the Baiyun station on the settlement day will be critical, as a sudden clear spell could push temperatures higher, though the current forecast points to thunderstorms with heavy rain[4][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.