Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature of that day in degrees Celsius. A YES share in this market pays out if the recorded maximum falls within a specific temperature band; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that band. Traders are essentially wagering on which range the Observatory's official daily maximum will occupy, with settlement tied to the published "Absolute Daily Max" figure once the data is finalised and released.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are remarkably consistent. Historical records show daily maxima in mid-August typically cluster between 32 and 34 degrees Celsius, with extreme heat above 35 degrees occurring in roughly one year in five. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be pricing in a temperature range that sits outside the typical August envelope—either unusually cool or unusually hot. August 2025 data, once published by the Observatory, will provide the most recent comparable baseline for traders assessing seasonal patterns and any shift in local climate behaviour.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily temperature extracts with a lag of several days, meaning the settlement window closing on 13 August at noon requires either early data release or a brief extension. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website for publication schedules and any weather alerts issued in the days preceding the target date. Tropical cyclone activity, which peaks in August, can suppress temperatures significantly; conversely, high-pressure systems can drive readings above the seasonal norm. The Observatory's forecasts, updated daily, will offer the most reliable signal of conditions likely to prevail on the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.