Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature lands in the specific range tied to the market (here, 33°C), while a NO share pays out if the temperature is any other value. With the current crowd-implied probability at 0% for YES, traders are effectively betting that the day’s peak will not hit exactly 33°C.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability with strong precedent. July in Hong Kong is typically hot, with average highs around 31–32°C, but extremes are common. In July 2007, the monthly mean maximum reached 32.9°C, and in recent years, temperatures have surged past 34°C, including a record 36.1°C in 2024 and 39°C in Sheung Shui in an earlier record year[3][4][9]. Given this volatility, hitting precisely 33°C is statistically unlikely, which aligns with the market’s 0% YES pricing.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily forecast updates and the final “Daily Extract” once data is published, as settlement depends entirely on this official source[2][6]. Recent weather reports indicate a mix of sunny periods and showers for 1 July, with temperatures forecast between 28–33°C and a high probability of significant rain, which could suppress peak temperatures[2]. No new announcements are expected before the settlement window ends on 2026-07-01, so the key catalyst is the observatory’s finalized reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.