Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not hit the upper threshold the market defines, likely due to historical patterns or current forecasts.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with 2022 marking the hottest July since records began in 1884, breaking the 2020 record due to a persistent subtropical ridge [1][5]. The highest monthly maximum temperature recorded in July was 35.7°C, though daily peaks often range between 31°C and 34°C [2]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 show daily highs between 30°C and 34°C (86°F to 93°F), with an average high of 31.7°C (89°F), making extreme peaks above 35°C less probable [3][8]. This historical context supports the low YES probability.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once published, as the market cannot resolve until this data is official [7]. Key catalysts include updates on the subtropical ridge’s strength and any sudden shifts in local weather patterns, such as typhoon activity or heavy rainfall, which could suppress temperatures. Recent climate reports confirm July 2026 is following typical seasonal trends, with no immediate signs of record-breaking heatwaves [3]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026, so timely data access is essential.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.