Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the single highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 11 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by the Hong Kong Observatory. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range selected for that outcome, while a NO share pays out if it does not; the current 0% crowd-implied probability for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not hit the chosen range, likely because the threshold is set unusually high.

Historical data shows July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with July 2024 being exceptionally hot and the city’s hottest month on record, breaking 11 temperature records with an average of 30.3°C [1][2]. Daily highs in July typically reach 30–34°C (86–94°F), and the 2026 forecast for Sha Tin predicts daily highs between 30°C and 34°C [3][6]. Given these patterns, a 0% probability implies the market’s target range likely exceeds the realistic maximum for this date, as even record-breaking July days rarely surpass 35°C.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once published, as the market cannot resolve until this official data is released [2][8]. The key catalyst is the timing of this publication, which typically occurs shortly after the date ends, and any sudden shifts in weather patterns such as tropical cyclones or intense heatwaves that could push temperatures beyond historical norms [7][9]. No recent news announcements have indicated anomalous heat for 11 July 2026, reinforcing the current low probability assessment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.