Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 13 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by the Hong Kong Observatory. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range you selected, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. This market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the chosen range.

Historical data frames this low probability. July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs near 32°C and record daily maximums exceeding 34°C in exceptionally hot years like July 2024, when a strong subtropical ridge drove temperatures to record levels [1][6]. The 2026 forecast for Sha Tin indicates daily highs between 29°C and 34°C (84°F to 94°F), consistent with typical July heat [2]. If the chosen range is unusually low, the 0% probability reflects that the temperature is expected to be higher.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather summaries and the upcoming “Daily Extract” publication, which will finalise the “Absolute Daily Max” figure for settlement [7][9]. No immediate news announcements are expected to alter the temperature, but the official data release on or shortly after 13 July 2026 is the critical dependency. The market cannot resolve until this data is published, making the timing of the Observatory’s report the key catalyst for settlement [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.