Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature, and this market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that figure. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome falls within a specified range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. Here, traders are essentially betting on whether Hong Kong's peak temperature that day will land in a particular band—say, 32–33°C or 34–35°C—with payouts reflecting how confident the crowd is about each range.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are remarkably consistent. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily maxima in mid-July typically cluster between 32 and 34°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in roughly one year in five during this period. The current 0% probability on YES suggests the crowd has not yet settled on a specific range, or the market may still be awaiting clearer definition of available outcome brackets. Comparable July forecasts from previous years show little variance week-to-week, making seasonal patterns a stronger predictor than day-to-day volatility.

Resolution depends entirely on the Hong Kong Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data, which is released after the measurement period closes. Traders should monitor the Observatory's climate database for finalised readings, typically available within 48 hours of the date in question. No interim forecasts or weather alerts will alter the settlement outcome—only the Observatory's recorded absolute daily maximum, measured to one decimal place in Celsius, determines the result. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July 2026, after which the market awaits official data publication.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.