Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest air temperature in degrees Celsius across the city, a single real-world data point that will determine whether this prediction market resolves to YES or NO. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market asks whether the peak temperature falls within a specific range, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggesting traders believe that range is effectively impossible.

Historically, Hong Kong’s mid-July highs typically cluster between 31°C and 35°C, with the absolute daily maximum rarely dipping below 30°C even during cooler spells. The Observatory’s long-term records show that temperatures exceeding 36°C are uncommon but not unprecedented, having occurred during intense heatwaves in 2017 and 2022. Given the 0% probability, the implied range likely sits far outside this historical band—perhaps below 28°C or above 38°C—making it an outlier scenario that contradicts decades of seasonal data.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather bulletins and the upcoming “Daily Extract” publication, which finalises the absolute daily maximum for settlement. No immediate catalysts such as typhoon warnings or government heat alerts have been issued for mid-July 2026, but seasonal climate models from the China Meteorological Administration suggest a high likelihood of typical summer conditions. Until the Observatory publishes the confirmed figure in its official dataset, the market remains open but unresolvable, with settlement locked until 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.