Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that single daily maximum reading. A YES share pays out if the actual temperature falls within your chosen range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. The Observatory publishes these measurements to one decimal place in its official Daily Extract records, which serves as the binding resolution source once data is finalised.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are remarkably consistent year on year. Historical data shows daily maxima in mid-July typically cluster between 32°C and 34°C, with extreme readings above 35°C or below 31°C occurring rarely. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be published or treating this as a placeholder market. July represents the height of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when thermal patterns are largely locked in by atmospheric circulation patterns established weeks earlier. Comparable dates from recent years—such as mid-July 2023 and 2024—recorded highs of 33–34°C, providing a baseline for expected outcomes.

The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 18 July 2026, but resolution cannot occur until the Hong Kong Observatory publishes its Daily Extract for that date, typically released within days of the observation period. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website for any operational disruptions, instrument recalibrations, or unusual weather systems that might drive temperatures outside the historical range. Tropical cyclone activity or unexpected monsoon shifts remain the primary catalysts for material deviations from the 32–34°C norm.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.