Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 2 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the actual temperature will fall within a specific range set by the market, while a NO share means you believe it will not. This market resolves only once the Observatory publishes its finalised "Daily Extract" for that date, and the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 2 July 2026.

Historical and seasonal data frame the current 0% YES probability as likely premature. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 forecasts above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, with typical early-July daytime highs around 31°C under prevailing southwesterly flow [1]. Recent seasonal forecasts for July–September 2026 also indicate normal to above-normal temperatures, consistent with long-term averages of 31°C maximums in July [2][9]. On 30 June 2026, Hong Kong recorded a maximum of 34°C, suggesting heat is already active [3]. Trader consensus on a similar July 1 market clustered around 31–33°C, reflecting uncertainty but not ruling out high heat [1].

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s release schedule for the "Daily Extract" and any updates on synoptic conditions, such as southwesterly flow intensity or rainstorm warnings that could suppress temperatures. The Observatory recently recorded peak temperatures of 36.7°C in Sheung Shui during an intense heatwave, showing the potential for extreme highs [10]. Watch for official announcements on ENSO status and climate model updates, as these influence seasonal temperature projections [2]. The market cannot resolve until the data is published, so timing the release is critical for accurate trading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.