Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the threshold in question.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability. July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs around 32°C and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C; the highest monthly maximum recorded since 1885 is 35.7°C [3]. Recent weather in early July 2026 saw a peak of 33.3°C (92.1°F) on 2 July [5], and July 2026 forecasts indicate daily highs between 30°C and 36°C [9]. If the market’s YES range is set at 28°C or lower, the 0% probability is puzzling given that 28°C is well below typical July highs; however, if the range is set significantly higher—say 36°C or above—the probability aligns with the rarity of such extremes, even in peak summer [4].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised “Daily Extract” for 4 July, which publishes the official “Absolute Daily Max” once data is confirmed [2]. The resolution cannot occur until this extract is available via the Climatological Information Services portal [6]. While no specific weather announcement has been issued for 4 July yet, forecasters note that tropical cyclones or heavy rain in late June or early July could suppress temperatures, though such events are less common in mid-July [9]. The key dependency is the timely publication of the official record, which typically occurs within 24–48 hours after the date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.