Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the observed temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range. Historical data frames this low probability: early July in Hong Kong typically sees average highs of 30.4°C, with lows around 26°C, and the seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 predicts normal to above-normal temperatures, yet the specific 31°C threshold remains statistically uncommon for this date [2][4].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather updates and the finalisation of the “Daily Extract” data, which is the sole resolution source for this market. Recent forecasts indicate mainly cloudy conditions with light rain patches through 9 July, which could suppress peak temperatures and keep highs below 31°C [7]. The key catalyst is the official publication of the “Absolute Daily Max” figure once the data is finalized; until this appears in the Daily Extract, the market cannot resolve, making the timing of this publication a critical dependency for settlement [2][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.