Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. This market asks traders to predict which temperature band that figure will fall into. When you buy a YES share, you're betting that the highest temperature on that date lands within your chosen range; a NO share means you're wagering it falls outside that range. The settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract once the day's readings are finalised.

Hong Kong's June climate is characterised by early monsoon conditions and rising humidity ahead of the summer peak. Historical data shows June daily maxima typically range between 28 and 33 degrees Celsius, though extremes have occasionally pushed higher. The current 0% probability assigned to YES outcomes suggests the market crowd expects the actual temperature to fall outside all offered ranges—an unusual signal that warrants scrutiny of the specific bands available. Comparing June temperature patterns from prior years via the Observatory's archives provides essential context for assessing whether any single range is genuinely implausible or whether the market pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about the resolution bands themselves.

The Hong Observatory publishes daily climate data with a lag of several days, meaning final settlement cannot occur until after 10 June when readings are processed and verified. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly for publication of the Daily Extract; no advance forecasts or weather alerts will alter the settled figure, which depends solely on recorded instrumental data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the specified date, though actual resolution may occur later pending data availability.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.