Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that single daily maximum reading. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specified bracket; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes these measurements to one decimal place in its Daily Extract records, which serve as the official settlement source once data is finalised—typically within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently uncertain which specific temperature band will resolve, or that the market's range options have not yet attracted sufficient conviction. Historical data from the Observatory shows considerable variability: June temperatures can spike above 33°C during heat waves or remain moderate around 28°C depending on monsoon patterns and tropical systems. Comparable June dates over the past decade provide useful anchors for assessing likelihood across different temperature brackets.

The key dependency is the monsoon transition and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during early June 2026. The Hong Kong Observatory issues seasonal forecasts and updates its outlook monthly; traders should monitor these releases for shifts in expected conditions. Settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's published Daily Extract for that date—no alternative sources or adjustments apply. The market cannot resolve until official data appears on the Observatory's climate information system.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.