Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature reached that day in degrees Celsius. A prediction market allows traders to buy YES or NO shares on whether that maximum will fall within a specific temperature band. Buying a YES share means you believe the day's peak will land in that range; a NO share bets it will fall outside. The settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure, published in their Daily Extract once the day has passed and data is finalised.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly within the early monsoon season, when daily maxima typically range between 29 and 33 degrees Celsius. Historical records show considerable year-to-year variation: June 2015 saw peaks near 34 degrees on several days, whilst cooler Junes have stayed closer to 28 degrees. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating this as a placeholder market pending the actual date. Comparable June temperature markets in subtropical regions have historically resolved across a wide band, reflecting the sensitivity of daily maxima to passing weather systems and urban heat effects.

The critical dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule. Data typically becomes available within 24 to 48 hours of the observation date, though official finalisation can take longer. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly rather than relying on secondary sources, as the resolution source explicitly references their published Daily Extract. No announcements or forecasts issued before 13 June will alter the outcome; only the actual recorded temperature matters.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.