Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature of that day in degrees Celsius. This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that reading. When you purchase a YES share, you're betting that outcome will occur; a NO share means you're betting it won't. The settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure for that date, rounded to one decimal place.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are remarkably consistent year on year. Historical data shows daily maxima in mid-June cluster between 29°C and 33°C, with the long-term average around 31°C. The city experiences early monsoon conditions by this point, bringing humidity and occasional rain, which can suppress peak temperatures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either waiting for specific temperature bands to be defined, or the market structure itself has not yet attracted meaningful participation. Without knowing the exact resolution brackets, assessing relative likelihood remains difficult; however, extreme readings—either below 27°C or above 35°C—would be statistically unusual for this date and location.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily climate data with a lag of several days, so final resolution cannot occur until mid-to-late June 2026 at the earliest. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website for publication of the "Daily Extract" covering 14 June. No advance announcements typically precede these releases. The primary variable affecting the outcome is weather patterns in the fortnight before the settlement date; sustained high pressure systems would push temperatures toward the upper range, whilst tropical cyclone activity or extended cloud cover could suppress them toward the lower end.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.