Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market invites traders to predict which temperature range will contain that figure. A YES share pays out if the actual maximum falls within your chosen bracket; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. The settlement depends entirely on official data published by the Observatory after the date has passed, making this a straightforward weather-outcome contract with no discretionary elements.

Hong Kong's June climate is firmly established within the pre-monsoon season, when daily maxima typically range between 31°C and 34°C. Historical records show considerable year-to-year variation: some June days peak near 30°C during cooler years, whilst heat waves have pushed readings above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating the market as nascent. Comparable June markets in subtropical regions show that temperature ranges cluster tightly around seasonal norms unless significant weather systems intervene.

The key dependency is the monsoon onset timing and intensity. The Southwest Monsoon usually establishes itself across southern China by mid-June, which can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rain or, conversely, trap heat and humidity if the system stalls. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in the weeks before settlement. The Observatory publishes daily weather bulletins and monthly climate summaries; the specific "Daily Extract" data needed for resolution typically appears within days of the observation date, though official finalisation occasionally takes longer during periods of data verification.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.