Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The key real-world event is whether the Hong Kong Observatory records a daily **absolute maximum temperature** on 20 June 2026 that falls inside one of the market’s Celsius ranges. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the outcome happens, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, the final answer depends on the Observatory’s published “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” in its Daily Extract, which is the settlement source named by the market. Hong Kong’s summer climate makes this a straightforward weather question in principle, but settlement turns on the single highest reading for the day, not the average or the forecast peak.[5][8]

The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** suggests traders see the specified temperature band as extremely unlikely, but that should be read cautiously because weather markets can move sharply when the forecast range tightens or a hot spell arrives. Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June to August 2026 calls for temperatures to be **above-normal** overall, which supports a general warm bias, while third-party June guides and forecasts still place typical highs in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius rather than at an extreme threshold.[5][3][6] Past hot-weather coverage also shows Hong Kong can reach the mid-30s on particularly warm days, so the market is really about how today’s specific setup compares with the selected range, not whether Hong Kong is “hot” in a broad sense.[4]

A trader should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s short-range forecast, any heat or rain warnings, and the timing of the Daily Extract update, because this market cannot resolve until the final data for the date is published. The Observatory says maximum temperature is the recorded temperature at HKO on the day, so late-day conditions still matter for the final figure, especially if cloud, rain, or a coastal breeze caps the reading below the relevant band.[8][1] With settlement only after publication, the main catalyst is not a press release but the combination of the day’s observed weather and the Observatory’s official data release.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.