Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range you select, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range, though this figure is provisional until official data is published.

Historical patterns and seasonal forecasts frame how to interpret this near-zero probability. Long-term averages for Hong Kong in June show daytime maximums around 30°C, with high heat and humidity [1]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures, increasing the likelihood of hotter days [3]. Recent reports indicate a heatwave is underway, with temperatures expected to reach 33°C this week [7]. A similar market for 22 June 2026 resolved at 33°C, reinforcing that June highs can exceed 30°C [2]. These cases suggest the 0% probability may be overly cautious given the current heat trend.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max” value once data is published, as the market cannot resolve until this is available [6]. Watch for official announcements on heatwave warnings or tropical storm activity, which can alter temperature outcomes; on average, 1.4 tropical storms affect Hong Kong in June [1]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 26 June 2026, so timely access to the final extract is critical. No moralising is needed—just track the official data release and adjust positions based on the confirmed temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.