Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range the trader selects, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market believes the temperature will not hit the selected threshold, but this is a consensus view, not a meteorological guarantee[1].

Historical data frames how to interpret this low probability. June 2025 was exceptionally hot, with the Observatory recording a peak of 35.6°C on 10 June, matching the all-June record set in 1963[2][9]. The seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly predicts above-normal temperatures for Hong Kong, citing the latest ENSO status and climate models[3]. Even the lowest recorded monthly mean maximum temperature for June since 1885 was 27.4°C, meaning temperatures rarely dip below 27°C in this month[7].

Traders should monitor daily weather updates from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Daily Extract" which finalises the "Absolute Daily Max" figure[4]. The catalyst is the official publication of this data, which the market cannot resolve until it is available. Recent news highlights the Observatory’s warnings of extreme heatwaves, with temperatures reaching 36.1°C earlier this year, breaking the 1963 record[5]. The market’s resolution depends entirely on this finalized data point, making the publication schedule the critical dependency for any position.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.