Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that figure. When you buy a YES share, you're wagering that the highest temperature falls within your chosen bracket; a NO share means you're betting it falls outside. The settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" reading, published in their Daily Extract once the day's data is finalised.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon atmospheric conditions. Historical data shows June daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 33°C, though extremes have reached 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on which specific temperature bands the market offers, or treating this as a calibration event before committing capital. June sits in Hong Kong's warm-to-hot season, making mid-range outcomes (30–32°C) statistically more probable than outliers.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in early June, as these significantly influence daily maxima. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 7 June, but the Observatory typically publishes final daily temperatures within 24 hours of the observation day. Any disruption to Observatory operations or data publication would delay resolution. Regional weather patterns—particularly the strength and timing of monsoon onset—remain the primary driver of variance around the seasonal mean.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.