Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that single daily maximum reading. A YES share pays out if the actual temperature falls within your chosen range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. The Observatory publishes these measurements to one decimal place on its Daily Extract database, which serves as the official settlement source once the data is finalised.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly within the pre-monsoon season, characterised by warm, humid conditions and increasing afternoon thunderstorm activity. Historical June maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C, though extreme readings above 34°C occur roughly once per decade during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the outcome to fall outside the lowest temperature ranges offered, reflecting baseline expectations that June 8 will produce a fairly warm but not exceptional day by seasonal standards.

The Hong Kong Observatory updates its climate database with a lag of several weeks following month-end, meaning resolution cannot occur until official data publication. Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns through May and early June, particularly any signals of an early-arriving monsoon trough or persistent high-pressure system that could drive temperatures toward extremes. Regional atmospheric indices and the Observatory's own monthly forecasts, published around the first week of each month, provide the most reliable forward guidance for June conditions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.