Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the William P. Hobby Airport station in Houston will record its daily high temperature, the single figure that determines settlement for this weather prediction market. A YES share pays out if the observed temperature falls within the selected range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. The crowd currently implies a 0% chance for the YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to land in a different bracket than the one offered.

Historical July data frames this near-zero probability. Houston’s average July high is 93°F, with typical daily highs spanning 85°F to 96°F, while extreme records show 104°F reached on 10 July 2022 [2][4]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate highs between 85°F and 96°F, with a heat dome building over Texas but temperatures this week staying shy of 100°F [2][7]. If the market’s YES range sits well below 85°F or above 96°F, the 0% probability aligns with climatology; if it sits near the average, the pricing may reflect a specific outlier expectation or a data mismatch.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily record for KHOU, which serves as the resolution source, and watch for updates on the Texas heat dome and evening rain chances forecast for 10 July [1][6][9]. Cloud cover and Gulf moisture influx are key dependencies that can suppress or elevate the peak temperature [10]. No formal announcements are required; the market resolves automatically once the daily high is published on the specified date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.