Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the William P. Hobby Airport in Houston will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a real-world weather event that this market tracks. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the chosen outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to the temperature being 79°F or below, implying they expect it to be significantly warmer.

Historical July temperatures in Houston routinely exceed 85°F, with recent summers often reaching 90°F or higher at Hobby Airport. The market’s frontrunner outcome is 86–87°F at 100% probability, reflecting strong alignment with typical mid-summer heat patterns for the region. This near-certainty suggests traders view lower ranges as highly improbable given Houston’s consistent climate behaviour in July.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecasts for Houston and any updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as these will confirm the final recorded temperature. While no specific announcements are pending for this date, seasonal climate models and real-time station data from KHOU will shape price movements as the settlement window approaches on 15 July 2026.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.