Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kuala Lumpur’s daytime heat is the real-world event behind this market: traders are betting on the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on 10 August, using Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table as the settlement source rather than the site’s summary high/low box. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the specified outcome happens; a **NO** share pays out if it does not. Because this market resolves to a temperature band, the key question is which Celsius range contains the day’s top reading, not whether the city feels broadly hot or humid.

The crowd-implied 0% YES reading says the current book does not expect the named range to hit, but that can be fragile when tropical weather is involved. Kuala Lumpur’s August climate is typically very warm, with historical averages around 30–31°C for highs, while records and recent history show that highs can move a few degrees either side of that in either direction.[10][11] The airport-focused setup matters because readings can differ from city-centre forecasts, and the market specification gives precedence to the observed airport data if there is any mismatch with headline summaries.[4]

The main catalysts to watch are the latest official forecast, thunderstorm timing, and how much sunshine the airport actually gets before the midday settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Malaysia’s meteorological department currently shows **no rain** for Kuala Lumpur on 10 August with a forecast maximum of **33°C**, while other forecast services show a similar high-80s Fahrenheit range and a chance of isolated thunderstorms later in the day.[12][19] That combination means the market can still shift if morning cloud, showers, or a quicker-than-expected heating trend changes the eventual top reading at the station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.