Highest temperature in London on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share profits if the outcome matches a specific condition you select, while a NO share wins if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the temperature being in a particular range, suggesting traders expect a different result.

Historical data shows July is London’s hottest month, with London City Airport averaging a high of 72°F (22°C), though extreme heatwaves can push temperatures well above this baseline [1]. Recent Polymarket activity on a similar event indicates the market is leaning toward 29°C or 30°C as the most likely highs, with 29°C holding a 39% probability and 30°C at 29% [2]. This divergence from the 0% YES figure implies the current market may be mispriced or focused on a different temperature bracket than the one being queried.

Traders should monitor the Met Office seven-day forecast for London City Airport, which tracks temperature, wind, and UV levels to anticipate heat spikes [3]. AccuWeather’s current outlook for 10 July predicts “mostly sunny and very warm” conditions with a high of 85°F (29°C), reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures near that threshold [4]. No major weather announcements are pending, but the settlement relies entirely on Wunderground’s official daily record, so any discrepancy between forecast models and the final logged data will determine the outcome [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.