Highest temperature in London on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual peak temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays if it falls outside that range. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which records hourly readings throughout the day. Traders select a temperature band—say, 18–20°C or 21–23°C—and profit if the day's maximum lands there.

London's June temperatures typically range from 16°C to 23°C, with an average high around 21°C. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome not yet reflected in the market structure, or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will resolve correctly. Historical June data from City Airport shows that temperatures above 25°C are uncommon but not unprecedented; the station recorded 28.6°C in June 2022. Conversely, cooler Junes with highs below 18°C do occur roughly once per decade, particularly if Atlantic low-pressure systems dominate.

The Met Office publishes its long-range forecast for June 2026 in spring; traders should monitor updates from March onwards for seasonal outlooks. Short-range forecasts become reliable only in the five days before 10 June. Factors affecting the outcome include North Atlantic Oscillation patterns, jet-stream positioning, and whether high-pressure systems establish over the UK or Atlantic troughs push cooler air southward. No scheduled events—such as volcanic eruptions or major solar activity—typically influence single-day UK temperatures, making this market primarily dependent on standard meteorological variability.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.