Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual temperature lands within a specific bracket; a NO share pays out if it lands elsewhere. Traders purchase shares to express their view on which range will contain that day's peak temperature, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement hinges on historical weather data published by Wunderground for the airport's official station.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 24°C, though peaks above 25°C occur in roughly one year in three during early summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no meaningful chance of the market's implied temperature threshold being exceeded. This assessment reflects both seasonal norms and the inherent difficulty of predicting specific daily maxima more than eighteen months ahead. Historical June records for London City Airport show considerable variability; the station has recorded highs from 16°C to 28°C depending on prevailing Atlantic weather patterns and continental air masses.

The primary catalyst for temperature outcomes will be the position of the jet stream and any high-pressure systems anchored over the British Isles during mid-June 2026. Early summer heat waves in the UK typically develop when warm air advection from the south persists for several days, though such events remain probabilistically modest for individual dates. Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecasts released by the Met Office in spring 2026, which will provide the first substantive signal about whether June conditions favour above-average warmth.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.