Highest temperature in London on June 14?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays out if it falls elsewhere. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which records hourly readings throughout the day. Traders are essentially betting on which temperature band will contain the day's peak—a straightforward factual outcome with no ambiguity once the day concludes.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 24°C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or low 30s. The current 0% probability on YES suggests the crowd expects the actual temperature to fall outside the range being tested, or that traders are uncertain about which bracket to favour. Historical June data from City Airport shows that days exceeding 28°C are uncommon but not unprecedented; the station recorded 30.5°C in June 2022 during an early-summer warm spell. This baseline helps contextualise whether the market's ranges are realistic or skewed toward extremes.

The UK Met Office issues seasonal forecasts and five-day weather outlooks that traders should monitor as June 2026 approaches. Any official warnings about high-pressure systems or continental air masses moving into the British Isles in mid-June would shift expectations upward. Conversely, Atlantic low-pressure systems bringing cooler, wetter conditions would suppress temperature predictions. The settlement window closes at noon on the day itself, so traders have no post-event adjustment period; the Wunderground reading at that cutoff becomes final.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.