Highest temperature in London on June 19?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The outcome depends on the **highest temperature recorded at London City Airport** during the day, with the market settling on whichever temperature band contains that peak reading from Wunderground’s daily history page. A **YES** share pays if the final recorded maximum falls inside the specified range for that contract; a **NO** share pays if it does not.

A **0% YES** crowd price usually means traders see the current contract range as extremely unlikely, but it does not mean the weather will be cold. London’s June climate commonly supports warm afternoons, and nearby market references and forecasts for the airport have shown highs in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, with a real chance of touching 30°C in hot spells. BBC Weather’s airport forecast for Friday 19 June showed a high of **25°C**, while other live forecasts for London City Airport have recently pointed to highs around **29–30°C**, illustrating how quickly expectations can move with updated model runs.[2][3]

The main catalysts are the local forecast updates before the settlement window closes, plus the actual airport observations posted later in the day. This market cannot resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, so late-afternoon heat can still matter even after midday UTC.[1] Traders usually watch whether cloud, rain, wind direction, or a sea-breeze suppresses the peak, and whether forecasters revise the day’s maximum up or down as new observations come in.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.