Highest temperature in London on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the selected temperature range, while a NO share pays out if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, despite the day’s extreme heat conditions.

Historically, late June in London often sees temperatures between 24°C and 32°C, with the warm season running from mid-June to early September [3]. Recent records show a red heat warning issued for the UK, with 33.5°C recorded at London Heathrow in May 2026, marking the hottest May ever [5]. Another source notes a record-breaking 34.8°C for the hottest June day in the UK, recorded on 24 June 2026 [8]. These comparable cases indicate that while extreme heat is possible, the 0% YES probability may reflect a mismatch between the selected range and likely outcomes.

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s daily maximum temperature forecast, which currently predicts 26°C for London City Airport, with a maximum of 32°C [6]. The BBC Weather also reports a red warning for extreme heat and an amber warning for likely ice, fog, and extreme heat on 26 June [2]. Key dependencies include southerly wind patterns, humidity levels at 88%, and falling pressure, all of which influence temperature peaks [2]. No official announcements have been made yet, but real-time updates from Wunderground will settle the market at 12:00 UTC on 26 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.