Highest temperature in London on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual peak temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays if it doesn't. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which records hourly readings throughout the day. Traders are essentially wagering on which temperature band will contain that day's maximum, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to every option—an unusual state that typically reflects either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity.

London's June temperatures historically cluster between 18°C and 24°C, though the city has recorded highs of 28°C or above in early June during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests either that no range has yet attracted sufficient backing to register, or that the market opened with placeholder odds pending initial trades. Comparable June weather markets in the UK show that seasonal norms—mild to warm, with occasional heat—anchor most forecasts, though single-day variance remains substantial.

The Met Office publishes its seasonal outlook and monthly forecasts, with updates typically arriving in late May. Traders should monitor those releases for signals about whether June 2026 is tracking toward above or below normal temperatures. Atmospheric patterns in late May will provide the most reliable indicator of early June conditions, as medium-range weather models lose accuracy beyond ten days. The settlement window closes at noon on 6 June, meaning final trades must occur before morning temperatures peak.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.