Highest temperature in London on June 8?

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Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in any given range pays out if that range contains the actual peak temperature for the day; a NO share pays out if the peak falls elsewhere. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for the airport station, which records hourly observations throughout the day. Traders are essentially wagering on which temperature bracket will capture London's warmest moment on that specific date.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warmer spells. Historical records from the Met Office show that temperatures exceeding 28°C in early June occur roughly once every five to seven years in the capital. The current crowd probability of 0% across all ranges suggests either that the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or that traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. Comparable markets on UK summer temperatures have historically shown significant repricing once meteorological outlooks become available in late May.

The UK Met Office typically releases extended forecasts around two weeks before the settlement date, which would fall in late May 2026. These outlooks often trigger substantial movement in weather prediction markets, particularly if they signal anomalous warmth or cold. Additionally, any Atlantic weather systems or high-pressure systems developing in early June could materially shift expectations. Traders should monitor the Met Office's long-range bulletin and any significant weather pattern shifts in the preceding fortnight, as these remain the primary catalysts for probability shifts in this market.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.