Highest temperature in London on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual high temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays if it falls outside that range. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which records hourly readings throughout the day. Traders are essentially wagering on which temperature band will contain the peak reading.

London's June weather typically ranges between 18°C and 24°C, though highs occasionally exceed 25°C during warm spells. The current 0% probability assigned to YES suggests the market has not yet populated with meaningful liquidity or that traders are awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts. Historical June records at London City Airport show variability: some years peak near 20°C under cloud cover, whilst others reach the mid-20s during high-pressure systems. Comparable early-summer markets often see probability shifts only once seasonal weather patterns stabilise in late May.

The key catalyst will be the emergence of reliable extended forecasts in the final week before 9 June. The UK Met Office typically issues detailed outlooks five to seven days ahead, which often trigger trader activity in weather markets. Additionally, any significant Atlantic weather systems or continental high-pressure ridges forecast to affect southern England during that period could shift expectations materially. Until such forecasts materialise, the market's low activity reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence in any particular outcome.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.