Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the daily high temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 9 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. This specific market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day, as verified by Wunderground at the KLAX station.

Historically, July in Los Angeles sees average highs around 85°F, with typical daily ranges between 79°F and 90°F[1]. Recent years have shown occasional heatwaves pushing temperatures 25 degrees above normal, as seen in March 2026 when record-breaking highs were forecast across Southern California[4]. Given this climate pattern, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for the 76–77°F range appears inconsistent with historical averages, suggesting traders may be misreading the likelihood of cooler conditions.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and any announcements from the National Weather Service regarding heatwave developments in the region. While platforms like AccuWeather offer useful guidance, the official resolution relies solely on Wunderground’s climatological data for KLAX[3]. Recent news from the Los Angeles Times highlights ongoing concerns about extreme heat in the Southland, which could significantly influence temperatures on 9 July[4]. Watching these dependencies will clarify whether the market’s current pricing reflects a genuine anomaly or a misjudgement of seasonal trends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.