Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded on 7 July 2026 at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the observed temperature falls within a specific range, while a NO share wins if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance that the temperature will hit the 33°C threshold, suggesting traders expect a cooler day.

Historical data frames this low probability: Lucknow’s hottest day reached 47.8°C on 12 June 2025, yet July typically sees a drop as monsoon clouds arrive [1]. Recent records show a peak of 105.8°F (46.0°C) on 26 June 2026, but daily averages in early July often fall below 33°C due to increased rainfall [3]. This pattern explains why the market prices in a cooler outcome despite the city’s extreme summer heat.

Traders should monitor the India Meteorological Department’s monsoon progress reports, as cloud cover and rain directly suppress daytime highs [4]. A recent forecast from PredictWind notes that July 2026 in Lucknow includes higher rainfall and lower wind speeds, which typically reduce maximum temperatures [6]. Any sudden shift in the monsoon schedule or unexpected heatwave announcement could alter the settlement, but current dependencies point toward a sub-33°C day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.