Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Madrid-Barajas Airport on 12 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out only if the outcome matches the specific temperature range selected for that contract, while a NO share pays if the actual temperature falls outside that range. This market resolves to the bracket containing the day’s peak heat, with data sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for the LE MD station.

Historical July highs in Madrid typically range between 35°C and 40°C, though recent years show a trend toward more extreme peaks. During the 2026 European heatwaves, Barcelona hit 40.5°C on 8 July, and Madrid saw temperatures reach 42°C earlier in the month, with nine regions under extreme heat alerts [6][8]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for YES suggests traders believe the specific range offered is unlikely, possibly because recent data indicates July 12 will be cooler than the early-July spike or that the selected bracket is misaligned with expected conditions.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from AEMET and real-time updates from Wunderground, as model consensus can shift by one to two degrees within five days [1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 July, so any late-morning heat pulses or cloud cover changes before that time will determine resolution. With Spain experiencing its hottest first half of 2026 since records began, temperature volatility remains high, making near-term weather bulletins the primary catalyst for probability shifts [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.