Highest temperature in Madrid on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded on 3 July 2026 at Madrid-Barajas Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will fall within the specified temperature range, while a NO share means you expect it to fall outside that range. This market resolves to the temperature bracket containing the peak heat of that day, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 3 July 2026.

Historically, Madrid has seen extreme July heat, with temperatures in 2025 exceeding 42°C during peak events and a national record of 45.4°C set in Figueres on 18 July 2028 [1][5]. The first half of 2026 was Spain’s hottest ever recorded, with temperatures 1.6°C above normal, suggesting a high likelihood of sustained heatwaves [6]. Given this backdrop, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES implies traders believe the temperature will not reach the specified range, possibly due to expectations of a short-term cooling spell or cloud cover.

Traders should monitor announcements from Spain’s meteorological agency regarding heatwave forecasts and Saharan air mass movements, which can rapidly elevate temperatures [4]. Recent reports indicate that hundreds may have died from record heat in Spain this week, underscoring the severity of the current conditions [2]. Key dependencies include the timing of the heatwave’s peak and any official warnings issued for Madrid, as these will directly influence the day’s maximum temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Madrid on July 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.