Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range. This setup hinges on verified data from Wunderground, which logs the peak temperature for all times on that day at the airport station.

Historically, July in Manila is part of the wet season, marked by heavy rainfall and high humidity, with average daytime temperatures reaching 31°C and overnight lows at 24°C[1]. The hottest months in Manila are typically March and April during the dry season, not July, when temperatures average 26°C to 31°C[2]. Long-term data shows July often sees 21 days with some rain and an average monthly rainfall of 389mm, making extreme heat less common than in the preceding dry months[1]. Recent records from June 2026 show highs around 37°C (98.6°F), but July’s wet conditions usually suppress such peaks[9].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts for tropical storm passages, as July averages 1.6 days affected by tropical storms, which can significantly lower temperatures[1]. The primary catalyst is the timing and intensity of rainfall events, as heavy showers in July and August are the heaviest in the wet season[2]. Recent PAGASA data lists top temperatures across the Philippines, with Laoag and Catbalogan reaching 34.0°C, but Manila’s wet season typically keeps highs lower[6]. No specific announcements are needed beyond standard meteorological updates, as the market resolves purely on the recorded temperature at the airport station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.