Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the range is virtually impossible to hit. This market resolves using data from Wunderground, specifically the peak temperature for that day at the airport station, with settlement finalising on 30 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Historical patterns in Manila provide essential context for interpreting this near-zero probability. June is typically a wet, humid month where daily highs rarely exceed 35°C, with average highs dropping from 33°C to 32°C and rarely surpassing 35°C [2]. While Metro Manila recorded an all-time record of 38.8°C in April 2024 at the same airport [4], such extreme heat is an anomaly linked to dry-season conditions, not the rainy June climate [1]. The most recent peak in June 2026 was 34.8°C on 12 June, reinforcing that temperatures in the 36°C+ range are exceptionally uncommon for this month [9].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or monsoon activity, as these directly dictate peak temperatures. A lack of significant rainfall or an unexpected dry spell could push temperatures higher, though current trends suggest stable, wet conditions [6]. Recent reports confirm that even the hottest days in the region recently, such as 36.0°C in Pasay City, occurred outside the typical June window [3]. With settlement approaching, the primary dependency remains whether the rainy season holds firm, as a break could be the only catalyst to challenge the 0% probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on June 30? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.