Highest temperature in Munich on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the peak temperature recorded at Munich Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the narrow range set for this contract, likely because historical data points to significantly higher or lower extremes for this date.

Historically, early July in Munich has seen dramatic heat spikes, framing how to interpret the current 0% probability. During a record-breaking European heatwave in late June and early July, Munich reached 38°C on 2 July, with western Germany hitting 37°C and overnight lows barely dropping below 24°C in hotspots [1][2]. Average July highs at Munich Airport typically range from 22°C to 24°C, rarely exceeding 37°C, meaning a 0% YES probability might indicate the market expects a temperature far outside the specific range offered, perhaps due to an anticipated cool spell or an extreme heat day that overshoots the target [5][9].

Traders should monitor immediate weather warnings and high-pressure system announcements, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature shifts. A moderate warning for high temperature was issued for Munich Airport, valid from Thursday morning until Friday evening, which could push temperatures toward the upper limits of the average range [4]. Additionally, the current forecast for Wednesday 1 July shows thundery showers and a high of 21°C, a significant drop from the heatwave peaks, suggesting that short-term weather schedules and cloud cover will be critical dependencies for the final settlement [3]. The resolution relies on Wunderground data for the highest temperature recorded at any time on this day, making real-time monitoring of these weather updates essential [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.