Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, the Munich Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Celsius, determining which bracket resolves this weather prediction market. A YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within the specific range selected by the trader; a NO share pays out if it lands outside that range. Currently, the crowd assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-universal confidence that the temperature will not reach the target bracket.

Historical data for Munich in July shows daily highs typically range between 22°C and 31°C, rarely exceeding 37°C [1][2]. Germany’s absolute national record sits at 42.6°C, set during an extreme heatwave in 2019, but such extremes are exceptionally uncommon in Munich’s airport climate [6]. Given the current 0% implied probability, the market likely targets a bracket above 38°C or 39°C, a threshold that aligns with no recent comparable cases at this station, making the YES outcome statistically improbable under normal summer conditions.

Traders should monitor the German Weather Service (DWD) for any emerging heatwave forecasts or atmospheric pressure anomalies that could push temperatures toward record levels. While no specific announcement has been issued for 12 July yet, the DWD regularly updates extreme heat warnings when sustained high-pressure systems develop over Central Europe [9]. Since the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 July, the final resolution depends entirely on the official Wunderground reading for that day, with no intermediate adjustments possible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.